Donald Trump’s re-election as President of the United States has reignited discussions on the impact of his administration on India and its diaspora. While Trump enjoys substantial admiration among certain sections of the Indian population, this affinity could backfire, especially as his hardline policies on immigration, trade, and global alliances take shape.
A stark reality is already surfacing: 18,000 undocumented Indian nationals are on the deportation list prepared by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). These individuals are part of a broader group of 1.5 million individuals marked for removal under what is set to be the largest deportation drive in American history. With approximately 725,000 illegal Indian immigrants residing in the U.S.—the third-largest group after Mexico and El Salvador—Trump’s policies are set to reshape the lives of thousands of Indian families.
H-1B Visa Rejections on the Rise
During Trump’s previous administration, approval rates for H-1B visas dropped significantly, from 87% in 2016 to 75% by 2020, according to the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS). These visas are crucial for Indian professionals, who account for nearly 70% of all H-1B visa holders. A renewed focus on “protecting American jobs” could see this trend continue, directly impacting Indian tech workers and companies reliant on Indian talent.
For the 1.1 million Indians awaiting Green Cards, any new restrictions on employment-based immigration or prolonged processing delays would exacerbate the already dire backlog. Many applicants face waits of over a decade, leaving families in a limbo that Trump’s policies are unlikely to alleviate.
Deportation Crackdown
According to ICE data released in November 2024, 17,940 Indian nationals are on the non-detained docket with final removal orders. This number represents just the beginning of a broader push against undocumented immigrants, signaling a harsher stance that could impact India-U.S. relations.
Adding to the strain, ICE has labeled India as “uncooperative” in deportation proceedings, citing delays in issuing travel documents and conducting interviews. Such designations could jeopardize India’s ability to negotiate favorable terms on other bilateral issues.
Trade Wars and Economic Fallout
Trump’s protectionist trade policies have historically targeted countries like India. His administration imposed tariffs on Indian steel and aluminum exports in 2018, totaling $241 million, prompting retaliatory tariffs from India on 28 U.S. products, including almonds and apples.
The ripple effects of these policies were felt across sectors:
- India’s exports to the U.S. dropped by 5% in 2019, a significant blow given that the U.S. is India’s largest trading partner.
- Indian IT firms, which generate approximately $150 billion in annual revenue, faced increased scrutiny and restrictions on outsourcing, impacting their bottom lines.
With Trump back in power, a continuation of these policies could further strain trade ties, potentially leading to reduced investments and disrupted supply chains.
Climate Policy: Diverging Agendas
India has invested heavily in renewable energy, aiming to achieve 500 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030. However, Trump’s stance on deregulation and withdrawal from the Paris Agreement during his previous term undermined global climate cooperation.
The lack of U.S. leadership on climate issues could slow international funding for clean energy projects in developing nations like India. Additionally, Trump’s focus on reviving fossil fuels could indirectly pressure India, which already grapples with severe air pollution and climate-related disasters.
Geopolitical Dynamics: A Transactional Relationship
While Trump has publicly lauded his relationship with Prime Minister Narendra Modi, his foreign policy remains heavily transactional. India’s strategic interests, such as countering China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific, may align with Trump’s objectives, but his unilateral approach could limit long-term cooperation.
Trump’s disdain for multilateral institutions like the World Trade Organization and the United Nations could weaken India’s ability to advocate for its interests on a global stage. For instance, India’s fight for climate justice and equitable trade agreements depends on robust multilateral frameworks—areas Trump has consistently undermined.
Admiration vs. Reality
Trump’s appeal among Indians, both in India and the U.S., is driven by his strongman persona and perceived alignment with nationalist values. However, this admiration often ignores the practical consequences of his policies:
- The immediate risk of deportation for 18,000 Indians and the broader crackdown on undocumented immigrants could devastate families and communities.
- Tariffs and immigration restrictions will hurt Indian businesses and professionals, diminishing opportunities for growth.
- Trump’s America First doctrine weakens international cooperation, indirectly hurting India’s global ambitions.
Trump’s return to power heralds a challenging era for India. While his presidency may offer short-term gains in defense and strategic alignment, the long-term costs—on immigration, trade, and global cooperation—could be far-reaching.
For Indians who admire Trump, it’s crucial to separate rhetoric from reality. Blind support for his policies could result in economic setbacks, geopolitical isolation, and the erosion of opportunities for millions.
(Views expressed are personal)
