Lok Sabha elections are always seen as a festival in India. The entire country has been in a festive mood for two months with all sides trying their best to convince voters. Till three months ago, when the initial preparations for the polls started by the different parties were gaining traction, the opinion polls showed BJP-led NDA in a comfortable position to come back to power. Today it is no longer the case as the opposition has gained ground and is giving a tough challenge to the BJP across several seats. With all the data and reporting we have from across India, it’s clear that elections 2024 is not a done deal for any party.
Source: ABP News
India being a parliamentary democracy, what happens within a single constituency holds equal importance as the national picture. Even when few parties dominate the national landscape the nature of the fight happening in the constituencies shows a different picture. The tight fight scenario in different seats is due to multiple factors such as the political history, demographics, the issues discussed, the personality of the candidates and much more. Beyond this most of these contests also hint at the implications for national politics.
Most constituencies in India are witnessing a direct contest between the BJP-led NDA and Congress INDIA alliance, although a few seats also exhibit strong third-party candidates as well. Here is a list of tightly fought and most eye-catching constituencies to watch for this election.
Rohtak, Haryana- Is one of the ten seats in the state of Haryana and is well known for being the seat of the Hooda Family, which is an important political family in the state. Last time, the BJP took this seat in the massive Modi Wave that lashed the country. This time, Randeep Hooda of Congress, the son of ex-CM Bhupinder Hooda is trying to win back the seat he lost in 2019 from Aravind Sharma of BJP. The local issues and anti-incumbency against the state government will determine the results.
Source: The Financial Express
Baramati, Maharashtra– Has always been the stronghold of the Pawar family. The seat has witnessed a lot of development which everyone in the area credits stalwart Sharad Pawar and his family members. Since the NCP has split into two factions between Sharad Pawar and his nephew Ajit Pawar, the fight for Baramati has tightened. Those who worked together last time are now head-on fighting each other. The sitting MP and daughter of Sharad Pawar, Supriya Sule is taking on Ajit Pawar’s wife Sunetra Pawar. Supriya Sule is fighting from the INDIA alliance while Sunetra is the candidate on behalf of NDA. The loyalty of the party cadre and voters will be the biggest issue in Baramati as the NCP symbol of the clock is with Ajit Pawar. Hence, the survival is the main issue for both Pawars.
Source: Rediff.com
Chhindwara, Madhya Pradesh- Located in Southern Madhya Pradesh saw rapid development under Congress leader Kamal Nath as the MP and later in his few years as Chief Minister. He has brought a new model of development to the country which everyone calls the Chhindwara model which is also an industrial hub. In 2019, after 44 years of being the MP, he resigned his seat and gave to his son Nakul Nath to contest which he narrowly won. This was the sole seat Congress managed to win in the state. This time, Nakul Nath’s rival is BJP District President Vivek Bunty. Just before the elections, many Kamal Nath loyalists including the mayor had joined BJP weakening the Congress in the stronghold. The June 4th will show if Congress has still managed to hold on to its stronghold despite all odds.
Source: NDTV
Kannauj, Uttar Pradesh- Located in the heart of UP, has been the traditional seat of the Yadav Family. Stalwart Mulayam Singh Yadav, Son Akhilesh Yadav and his daughter-in-law and wife of Akhilesh Yadav have won from this seat and became MP several times. In 2019, Dimple Yadav lost this seat narrowly by 12,000. This time Akhilesh Yadav made a surprise entry on the last day of nomination and decided to contest the elections from Kannauj to take back their priced possession from BJP. Incumbent MP Subrat Pathak from BJP is the contender against Akhilesh Yadav leading the Samajwadi Party.
Source: Tupaki English
Mandi, Himachal Pradesh- Has always been a stronghold of BJP. The seat has traditionally witnessed BJP candidates winning here with a very large margin. Surprising everyone BJP has fielded Actress Kangana Ranaut who has praised PM Narendra Modi several times and has been in the limelight for controversial speeches. The Congress in order to tighten the contest and defeat the opponent has fielded a sitting MLA from Shimla Rural Vikramaditya Singh, who is the son of ex-CM Veerbhadra Singh. National issues mixed with the recent floods in the state will decide the fate of this seat.
Source: NDTV
Secundrabad, Telangana- Unlike most of the seats we have discussed, here we have a triangular contest between BJP, Congress and BRS. Unlike other seats in the South, this has been one constituency where BJP has won several times. Also, comprising a sizeable Muslim minority population all parties have their shared strength here. The sitting MP is G Kishan Reddy who is also contesting this time, aiming nothing short of a victory. His main contestants here are T. Padma Rao Goud of Bharatiya Rashtra Samithi and Danam Nagender of the Congress. Despite the massive loss in state assembly elections, the Hyderabad-Secundrabad region stood with BRS which gives it hope while Congress from 2019 has revived back from its routing in 2014.
Source: India Today
Bangalore Rural, Karnataka- Located on the outskirts of the city has been a stronghold of the Congress party for a long time. Senior Congress leader D K Shivakumar’s brother D K Suresh has been consistently winning this seat. This was the sole seat that Congress won in the state in 2019 and Congress is in no position to concede it. While BJP has deployed H D Deva Gowda’s Son-in-law Dr C N Manjunath to wrest the last bastion of Congress. With JDS in NDA, BJS believes that Vokkaliga votes will fall for Manjunath and not for D K Suresh. The civic issues and water crisis are going to be the biggest issues deciding the fate of Congress here.
Source: Mint
Hyderabad, Telangana- This is one of the very few Muslim Majority constituencies in India. AIMIM Chief Asaduddin Owaisi has been winning this seat since 2004. All opposition parties have tried to win this seat but have successfully failed in the same. By fielding controversial candidate Dr. Madhavi Latha, the BJP has raised the decibel level of the campaign in the constituency hoping to reduce the margin of AIMIM’s support and eventually winning the seat. Congress has chosen Rajesh Kumar Pulipati to toughen the situation for both candidates. Whether AIMIM will be able to hold on to this seat or not is something that we have to watch this time.
Source: Hindustan Times
Bahrampur, West Bengal- The turf of the Opposition leader of India and senior leader of Congress Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury is now seeing a serious fight from TMC and BJP this
time. It is seen as the last bastion of Congress in the State. Despite being from the INDIA alliance, TMC has fielded former Cricketer Yousuf Pathan. BJP has fielded Dr Nirmal Chandra Saha as well. Recently BJP has made significant gains in the local and state elections. This seat has seen a couple of communal tensions which will decide the fate of the state.
Source: The Week
Rae Bareli, Uttar Pradesh- The long-standing Congress bastion in UP has grabbed headlines in the past two weeks after Rahul Gandhi made a surprise entry by deciding to contest here on the party ticket. Earlier Sonia Gandhi had decided not to contest this seat and possibly hand it over to Priyanka Gandhi. With suspense finally off Rahul Gandhi will carry forward this seat in a situation where BJP has made consistent gains across years. In 2019, Dinesh Pratap Singh of BJP a former Sonia loyalist fought well and is contesting again to defeat the Congress. Will Congress with Rahul Gandhi hold to this last bastion? We will know on June 4th.
Source: The Economic Times
Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu- Unlike the rest of Tamil Nadu where the BJP is not strong, Coimbatore has had strong BJP influence. The rising star of BJP and its State President K Annamalai has taken the challenge to win this seat. In 2023, he took a massive pada yatra across the state to excite the BJP cadre and gain public traction which he succeeded. Today, he is the tallest leader of BJP in the state and several opinion polls show him winning Coimbatore as well. With danger of losing the seat DMK had wrested the seat from CPIM, who had won this seat for the Grand Alliance. Ganapathi Rajkumar is fighting on the DMK ticket while AIADMK has posted Singai Ramachandran. This is a seat with a strong triangular contest, unlike last time with PM Modi visiting the seat multiple times as well.
Source: Rajasthantak
Alwar, Rajasthan- Located close to Delhi has been known for leaning towards Congress until BJP won the since two times in 2014 and 2019. Unlike last time when the wind was favouring BJP, this time the fight is bipolar between Lalit Yadav and BJP’s Bhupendra Yadav.
Apart from seats with tight fights, there are several other constituencies to watch for. From BJP, PM Modi will seek his third term from Varanasi, Home Minister Amit Shah seeking re-election from Gandhinagar, similarly Defence Minister Rajnath Singh from Lucknow, Transport Minister Nitin Gadkari from Nagpur, Women and Child Minister Smriti Irani from Amethi and many more. From the opposition we have senior Congress leader Manish Tiwari seeking a verdict from Chandigarh, Gaurav Gogoi from Jorhat, Kanhaiya Kumar from Delhi North East, son-in-law of Congress President Mallikarjuna Kharge, Radhakrishna is contesting from Gulbarga, sister of YS Jagan Mohan Reddy and YS Sharmila is contesting from the family seat of Kadapa. Imtiyaz Jaleel of AIMIM is seeking re-election from Aurangabad and independent youth leader Ravindra Singh Bhati is making strides in the Barmer constituency.
For the BJP to reach a 370+ seat tally in the country and for the INDIA alliance to stop the NDA juggernaut, winning in these is important.
Note : The article was Originally written by Jairam R Prabhu
